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Completeness and Quality of Lusaka (Zambia) Burial Permit Data

Authors: Kavi Bhalla, Jerry P Abraham

Date: July 7, 2010

 

Objective: To do a crude test of the completeness and quality of the Lusaka burial permit dataset

Method: The number of deaths in the Lusaka burial permits database was compared with an estimate of the number of deaths expected in the Lusaka metropolitan area

Findings:

-          The quality of cause of death attribution of the dataset is relatively low with a relatively high number of deaths assigned to unspecified causes.

-          The completeness of the database is low for injury (~15%) but higher (~50%) for all-cause deaths.

 

 

Background

-          Data Source Analyzed: Register of Deaths, Lusaka Burial Permits Office. The dataset contained records for the year full year of 2008 and partial year 2007. The data analyzed here is for the year 2008.  

-          Analysis in this report should be repeated once better data on urban mortality in Zambia is available:

-          The analysis in this report uses crude estimates of population and mortality in Zambia. Typically these have been extrapolated from estimates available for the country in international databases.

-          Since this is a vital registration dataset, it contains both injury and non-injury deaths.

 

Assessment of Quality of Injury Coding

·         Table 1 suggests that the database is not biased towards injury cases.

·         Table 2 suggests that the database is biased towards Male deaths.

·         The quality of cause of death attribution in the dataset is low in the current form

o   43% of all deaths are “Possible Injury”

o   14% of injury deaths are unspecified

 

Table 1: Distribution of injury and non-injury deaths (Year 2008)

Cause

Deaths

%

Injury

532

3%

Possible Injury

6933

43%

Not Injury

8591

54%

Total

16056

100%

 

 

 


 

Table 2: Age distribution of all-cause deaths (Year 2008)

 

Female

Male

Unknown

Total

0-14

2487

2833

17

5337

15-59

3540

4757

7

8304

60+

820

904

 

1724

Adult

263

334

 

597

child

24

23

 

47

Unknown

6

6

35

47

Total

7140

8857

59

16056

 

 

 

 

Table 3: Distribution of Injury Deaths

Intent

Mechanism

Deaths

%

Unintentional

RTA

151

28%

 

Drowning

40

8%

 

Fire

91

17%

 

Firearm

37

7%

 

Poisoning

56

11%

 

Other

13

2%

Suicide

Suicide

32

6%

Homicide

Homicide

36

7%

Unknown

Unknown Inj

76

14%

 

Total

532

100%

 

 

 

 

 

Assessment of Completeness

·         Coverage: It is assumed that the death registration data contains deaths only from Lusaka.  (99.6% of the deaths are from Lusaka District)

·         Age aggregation: The assessment focuses on deaths among young adults aged between 15-59 years. This was done to reduce uncertainty in this analysis. (Injuries occur primarily among young adults and the high mortality among children and older adults can add substantial uncertainty to analysis)

·         Table 4 shows that the completeness of the mortuary data set is low for injury deaths (~15%), probably because injury deaths are classified to possible injuries. Completeness is about 50% for all-cause deaths.

 


 

TABLE 4: Assessment of completeness of the Lusaka Burial Permits dataset  (2008)

POPULATION CALCULATION

 1,328,000

both sexes

Population of Lusaka Urban Area in 2007

 664,000

Male

 

 664,000

Female

 

 

Source: World Urbanization Prospects for total population + assuming 50-50 gender distribution

% that are between 15-59 years

55.70%

Male

% of urban males, 15-19 years

53.20%

Female

% of urban females, 15-19 years

 

Source: UNPD World Population Prospects 2008 (all urban population)

Population of Lusaka between 15-59 years

 369,848

Male

 

 353,248

Female

 

 

Calculated from above

DEATHS CALCULATION

Death rate for 15-59 years in Zambia

0.02342

Male

(per person)

0.02262

Female

 

 

Source: Estimated from UNPD all-cause deaths and UNPD population for year 2000

Estimated all-cause deaths among 15-59 years in Zambia

8662

Male

 

7992

Female

 

 

Source:  Death rate applied to Zambia Population

Fraction of all-cause deaths that are due to injuries among people aged 15-59 years

19.7%

Male

 

5.2%

Female

 

 

Source: GBD-2004, Africa region

Estimates of injury deaths in age group 15-59 years in Lusaka

 1,710

Male

 

 413

Female

 

 

Calculated from above

COMPLETENESS TEST

INJURY

 

 

Burial permits for Injury Deaths between the ages of 15-59 years

259

Male

 

48

Female

 

 

Source: Fully-specified injury deaths in Lusaka VR

Completeness of injury deaths between ages 15-59 years

15%

Male

 

12%

Female

 

14%

Total

 

 

Calculated from above


 

ALL CAUSE

 

 

Burial permits All-Cause deaths between the ages of 15-59 years

4757

Male

 

3540

Female

 

 

Source: Accra VR

Completeness of all-cause deaths between ages 15-59 years

55%

Male

 

44%

Female

 

50%

Total

 

 

Calculated from above

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